The unprecedented decline of oil prices in the global market is the result of the simultaneous interaction of economic, technical, and political factors, and cannot be reduced merely to a single cause. At the economic level, increased supply resulting from the return of certain producers to the market and weakened demand due to recession and the non-realization of projected growth in major consumer economies are considered decisive factors. At the technical level, the influx of oil from unconventional sources into the market and the publication of news regarding the reduction of the finished cost of shale oil production in the United States have altered market expectations and created downward pressure on prices; although evidence such as declining drilling rig activity and environmental difficulties brings this claim closer to a propaganda operation and a technological bluff rather than a sustainable reality. At the political level, Saudi Arabia's continued high production and non-cooperation with production cuts, alongside the motive of maintaining market share, are analyzed as an action with geopolitical objectives, including pressure on regional rivals and the weakening of certain oil-dependent economies. The synthesis of analyses indicates that the persistence of low prices in the long term is incompatible with the interests of the United States and oil governments, and the probability of a gradual return of prices exists in the medium-term horizon. Accordingly, it is recommended that the country's strategic decision-making be regulated based on accepting the temporary nature of this situation, avoiding reliance on undocumented technical claims, and strengthening preparedness to confront the political behavior of actors in the oil market.
Kazemi Najafabadi, A. (2017). Investigation of the Causes of Oil Price Decline. Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1(1), 87–92. https://doi.org/10.22054/jicia.2017.20405
MLA
Kazemi Najafabadi, A. "Investigation of the Causes of Oil Price Decline", Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1, 1, 2017, 87–92. doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20405
HARVARD
Kazemi Najafabadi, A. (2017). 'Investigation of the Causes of Oil Price Decline', Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1(1), pp. 87–92. doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20405
CHICAGO
Kazemi Najafabadi, A., "Investigation of the Causes of Oil Price Decline." Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1 1 (2017): 87–92, doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20405
VANCOUVER
Kazemi Najafabadi A. Investigation of the Causes of Oil Price Decline. JICIA. 2017;1(1):87–92 (In Persian). doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20405