Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for  Administrative Bodies

Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies

Financial Sustainability and the Balance of Revenues and Expenditures of the Social Security Organization: Challenges and Solutions

Author
Department of Insurance, Allameh Tabataba'i University
Abstract
The financial sustainability of the Social Security Organization, as the country's largest insurance fund, directly depends on the long-term balance between cash inflows and expanding liabilities; any disruption in this balance can trigger consequences extending far beyond the realm of welfare, threatening social security and even national security. Declining fertility rates, population aging, rising life expectancy, and a growing number of retirees, alongside a shrinking working-age population, have severely depleted the "support ratio," limiting the fund's capacity to fulfill its commitments. Data indicate that this ratio has followed a downward trend over recent decades, reaching levels where the organization is compelled to resort to bank loans, asset liquidation, and bond issuance to pay pensions. Alongside demographic factors, mandatory legislation enacted without actuarial calculations, early retirements, soaring healthcare costs (particularly following the health transformation plan), poor governance, and incomplete collection of the government's share have exacerbated the liquidity crisis and widened the gap between cash revenues and expenditures. Proposed strategies include the prompt settlement of government debts using liquid and profitable assets, avoiding the passage of legislation lacking specified financial burdens, implementing parametric reforms (increasing retirement age and service history, revising pension calculation formulas, and restricting hazardous occupations), strengthening governance and oversight, expanding insurance coverage to new groups, and defining sustainable revenue sources to prevent the deepening of financial imbalances.
Keywords