On the threshold of the year 2015 (1394), Iran's economy is in a state of stagflation—a condition that, simultaneously with high inflation and weak economic growth, has eroded productive structures and reduced employment capacity. One of the factors perpetuating this situation is the dominance of a "monetary" perspective on inflation, which seeks the root of inflation solely in liquidity and the monetary base, consequently recommending policies such as increasing the exchange rate, eliminating energy subsidies, raising interest rates, and applying contractionary policies. This approach, in Iran's economy where prices are continuously increasing, is not only inefficient due to the impact of key price changes on the entire price system, but it also ignores the role of cost-push, shock therapy, corruption, rent-seeking, and distributional conflicts. Alongside this issue, structural factors such as the dependence of production on imports, weak support for production, high interest rates, the non-transparent nature of the budget and banking system, smuggling, land grabbing, and the expansion of corruption have limited the capacity to emerge from stagflation. Proposed strategies emphasize prioritizing industrial and agricultural investment, focusing on overcoming recession and unemployment, downsizing the government, reforming the composition of government expenditures, improving the business environment, reforming the banking and commercial systems, avoiding shock therapy, and restoring trust to producers.
Jahangard, E. (2017). An Analysis of the Outlook of Stagflation in the Year 2015 (1394). Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1(1), 121–127. https://doi.org/10.22054/jicia.2017.20410
MLA
Jahangard, E. "An Analysis of the Outlook of Stagflation in the Year 2015 (1394)", Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1, 1, 2017, 121–127. doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20410
HARVARD
Jahangard, E. (2017). 'An Analysis of the Outlook of Stagflation in the Year 2015 (1394)', Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1(1), pp. 121–127. doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20410
CHICAGO
Jahangard, E., "An Analysis of the Outlook of Stagflation in the Year 2015 (1394)." Allameh Tabataba’i University Strategic Recommendations for Administrative Bodies, 1 1 (2017): 121–127, doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20410
VANCOUVER
Jahangard E. An Analysis of the Outlook of Stagflation in the Year 2015 (1394). JICIA. 2017;1(1):121–127 (In Persian). doi: 10.22054/jicia.2017.20410